After my not-so-complimentary critique of President Museveni’s State of the Nation Address in the Daily Monitor of June 19, I decided to approach Dr Ezra Suruma’s budget speech for 2006/7 with a specially positive mind.

My intention was to show those that think I am “a hardliner who can never admit that President Museveni’s government can produce anything good”, that I am actually very objective. Adorning my most positive demeanor, I first examined the performance and environment of twelve other countries, namely Kenya, Tanzania, Zambia, Botswana, Ghana, Costa Rica, Great Britain, DR Congo, Belgium, Swaziland, Brazil and the Netherlands, just to make sure that Uganda was fairly placed for comparison.

I looked at each of the 12 countries’ size, population by occupation, GDP by sector, per capita income, number of administrative units, number of MPs, number of telephone lines, internet hosts / users and expenditure on defence.

It pains to report that Uganda compares very poorly with all the countries examined. Her administrative cost is excessive and ridiculously out of tune with the county’s resources, her GDP being the lowest.
With an area of 236,040 sq km and 26m people, GDP of $7.090b and per capita income of $350, Uganda has 78 districts as administrative units, 327 Members of Parliament and spends about $198m per annum on defence.

In comparison, Ghana with an area of 239,460, sq km, 23m people, GDP of $9.413b and per capita income of $2,500, has 10 regions as administrative units, 230 Members of Parliament, and spends about $83m per annum on defence.

Nearer home, Kenya with an area of 582,650 sq km, 35m people, GDP of $16.11b and per capita income of $1,100 has 7 provinces and one area as administrative units, 224 Members of Parliament and spends about $230m on defence.

Tanzania has an area of 954,650 sq km, 38m people, $12.12b GDP and per capita income of $800. But the country has only 26 regions as administrative units, 274 Members of Parliament and spends about $21.2m per year on defence. Botswana, with an area of 600,370 sq km, 1.7m people, GDP of $9.046b and per capita income of $10,500, has only 9 districts and one town council as administrative units, 63 Members of Parliament and spends $325m on defence.

The DRC has 2,345,410 sq km of land, 63m people, GDP of $7.328b and per capita income of about $700 has 10 provinces and one city as administrative units, 500 Members of Parliament and spends about $103.7m per year on defence.

I could go on but the point is made; that Uganda compares absurdly poorly with all the countries under review. Her administrative costs are ridiculously excessive and out of tune with the country’s resources. Another point is that for all our expenditure on defence, Uganda is not safer than Tanzania or Ghana who spend significantly less money on defence.

It is also clear that Uganda’s poor performance can only be a manifestation of irresponsible management of the country's resources, including the human resource for planning.

President Museveni has promised Ugandans “Bonna Bagaggawale” but it takes more than mere words for a country to get rich. Economic development comes out of hard work, progressive social policies, capital investment, fiscal discipline and sound management, none of which I see in Uganda.

Botswana, despite being a near desert has transformed itself from one of the world’s poorest countries to a middle income one with a per capita income of $10,500, thirty times that of Uganda in less than 20 years. Progressive social policies, significant capital investment, fiscal discipline and sensible management have made Botswana one of Africa’s most dynamic economies. Tourism is growing because of the country’s conservation practices and extensive nature reserves.

Note that the richer a country becomes, the less dependant on agriculture it gets. So in addition to “good behaviour”, radical policies are necessary to shift the bulk of the population from agriculture, whose return on investment is very low.

Even Brazil, which supplies the bulk of the world’s coffee, employs only 20% of her population in agriculture and earns 10% of her GDP out of that while 14% are employed in industry and 66% in the service sector. Of Uganda’s population, 80% are employed in the agricultural sector but contribute only 41% to GDP.

In Ghana, 60% of the population are employed in agriculture and contribute 35% of GDP. Kenya’s agricultural sector employs 65% of the population and contributes 17% to GDP. Tanzania employs 80% of her people in agriculture and earns 43% out of the sector.

Now, Botswana employs only 40% of her population in agriculture and earns 3% of her GDP from the industry.

Costa Rica, with a $19.38b GDP and per capita income of $11,000 employs only 9% of her population in agriculture and earns only 8.6% from the sector. Belgium, with a $350b GDP, employs only 1.3% of her population in agriculture, which contributes only 1.3% to their GDP.

The Netherland with a GDP of $581b, employs only 2% of her population in agriculture and earns 2.1% of her GDP from the sector. Great Britain employs only 1.5% of her population in the agricultural sector and earns 1.1% of the country’s revenue from the sector.

There being a clear pattern linking poverty in a country to the number of people in that country engaged in agriculture, Uganda’s Ministry of Planning and Economic Development must come out with bold policies that de-link the population from agriculture, so that we have fewer, well facilitated commercial farmers, while the rest enter the high yielding industrial and service sectors. Clearly, this will not be achieved in one financial year, neither did the countries quoted above do it in one year, but it requires boldness, initiative and entrepreneurship to begin.

The Tourism industry has been growing like wild plants, without much pushing, but it is an industry that could greatly boost the service industry.
From the study I have done, the service industry by far yields the highest returns on investment. But it is not even among this country’s core industries.

With a developed tourism industry, given Uganda's great potential, we do not even need to fight with and beg Europe or America to enter their markets, or compete with much cheaper products from the East in European markets because we shall have brought our own export market right here in Uganda on our own terms.

The author is Lubaga North MP and Special Envoy in the Office of the FDC President
Contact: 0712418976

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